Andy Zupke Andy's a prolific writer for EDHREC blog content
What Collectors Are Saying Released August 2, 2024 - labeled "dead on arrival" by community due to brutal pull rates and overshadowed concurrent releases Terapagos ex dominates chase card hierarchy at $35-50 raw, $85-120 PSA 10, representing accessible mythical Pokemon from Scarlet & Violet games Special set pull rates significantly worse than standard: SIR 1:48 packs (2.08%), Ultra Rare 1:18 packs (5.56%), creating extreme pack opening negative EV 99-card main set creates manageable 198-card master completion target vs larger special set complexity Community sentiment softened by late 2024 - initial "$60 Terapagos crash to $35" stabilized, collectors appreciate compact completion scope Mythical/legendary focus features Terapagos, Pecharunt, Darkrai creating thematic cohesion but limited broad Pokemon variety Concurrent releases timing hurt adoption - launched between Stellar Crown (July) and Surging Sparks (November) creating allocation competition No booster boxes released - Elite Trainer Boxes, Collection Boxes only product lineup limits high-volume opening strategies Japanese Shrouded Fable counterpart offers 15-25% savings on non-chase cards for budget collectors seeking alternatives Market recovery by early 2025 - ETB pricing stabilized $45-60 range after initial $35-40 clearance period, validating niche appeal Tips from the Community Singles route absolutely mandatory - brutal 1:48 SIR rate creates 60-75% negative EV vs buying Terapagos ex direct at $35-50 Elite Trainer Box at $45-60 offers best pack value but still poor - 9 packs yields 0.19 SIR statistically, avoid opening for completion Focus completion order: Base 99-card set first (2-3 weeks, $200-350), add ultra rares selectively (3-4 weeks, $300-500), skip reverses for budget ($100-200) Wait for Terapagos ex market dips during reprint windows - $35-40 achievable vs $45-50 typical pricing Japanese Shrouded Fable provides 15-25% savings on bulk ultra rares - $15-25 Japanese vs $20-35 English for mid-tier cards Timeline expectations: 6-10 months budget path ($600-1,000), 3-5 months mid-tier ($1,000-1,400), 2-3 months premium ($1,400-1,800) Product hierarchy: Elite Trainer Box least-worst option ($45-60 for 9 packs), avoid Collection Boxes (worse $/pack), skip pack opening entirely Target market dips during allocation clearance windows - August-October 2024 saw $35-40 ETB pricing, created arbitrage for singles buyers Pre-screen Terapagos ex centering if grading - 60/40+ minimum for PSA 10, but modest premium (2.4x-2.8x) versus other sets (3x-4x) Join r/pkmntcgtrades for bulk ultra rare lots - 20-30% below TCGPlayer on non-Terapagos cards bought in sets Master set includes 99 cards plus 99 reverse holos (198 total) - compact scope appeals to completionists versus 400+ card behemoths Monitor ETB pricing quarterly - $45-60 sustainable but subject to 20-30% clearance volatility during allocation shifts Market Insights Top chase cards October 2025 values: Terapagos ex SIR $35-50, Pecharunt ex SIR $25-35, Darkrai ex SIR $20-30, Perrin $18-25 Terapagos ex PSA 10 premium: $85-120 (2.4x-2.8x raw), moderate grading economics with PSA 10 rate 30-35% (adequate but uninspiring) Pull rates from community 2,000+ pack data: SIR 1:48 packs (2.08%), Ultra Rare ex 1:18 (5.56%), Illustration Rare 1:24 (4.17%) Expected value $3.20 per pack at August 2024 pricing - opening at $5-6.67 ETB effective cost creates 40-55% negative EV (worst modern rates) Complete master set costs: Base 99-card $200-350, Base+Ultra Rares $500-850, Full 198-card with reverses $600-1,000 Sealed completion requires 480+ packs average ($2,400+ at ETB pricing) yielding 10+ SIRs statistically - singles absolutely essential Elite Trainer Box pricing: $50 MSRP (Aug 2024) $35-40 (Sep-Oct 2024 clearance) $45-60 (2025 normalization), volatile allocation SIR hierarchy: Terapagos ex $35-50, Pecharunt ex $25-35, Darkrai ex $20-30, remaining SIRs $12-20 (narrow range vs other sets) Investment outlook: Below-average 3-6% annual appreciation as poorly-received special set, stable but limited growth potential Cards likely to appreciate: Terapagos ex (mythical appeal), Darkrai ex (Gen 4 nostalgia), sealed ETBs (scarcity from low production) Format viability mixed: Terapagos ex sees occasional VGC play but limited competitive adoption versus collector-only sets International demand weak: English and Japanese pricing similar (15-25% gap vs 30-40% typical), indicating muted worldwide interest Things to Watch Out For Master set completion costs $600-1,000 via singles - budget-tier special set, manageable but poor value proposition versus alternatives Brutal pull rates create 40-55% negative EV - worst modern Pokemon TCG set for pack opening, singles absolutely mandatory Terapagos ex alone represents $35-50 - 5-8% of total budget, but modest premium versus dominant chase cards in other sets Counterfeit risk LOW on all cards - low values ($12-50 SIRs) make counterfeiting uneconomical, focus verification on Terapagos only Grading population adequate: Terapagos PSA 10 rate 30-35% but modest 2.4x-2.8x premium makes grading marginally worthwhile Reprint probability MEDIUM-LOW - special set status and poor reception suggest limited reprints, but allocation exists through 2025 Storage requirements for 198-card master minimal - budget $80-120 for standard organization, premium protection optional for Terapagos Price volatility on Terapagos - 30-40% quarterly swings $35-50 based on competitive meta and mythical Pokemon collector sentiment Scarlet & Violet Shrouded Fable Grading Guide Which Scarlet & Violet Shrouded Fable cards are worth the $20+/card grading fee
Does it only work because sets were small
Sell your Buried Alive (1673 - Bring Out Your Dead
Also got the stamps in the end too
